Will Aaron Boone win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Aaron Boone win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Aaron Boone's odds have collapsed dramatically, falling from 33¢ to 12¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information about the Yankees' 2026 prospects or managerial performance.
Analysis
Aaron Boone's odds have collapsed dramatically, falling from 33¢ to 12¢ over seven days, suggesting significant negative information about the Yankees' 2026 prospects or managerial performance. The extreme 1085% implied yield on the Yes side paired with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 24¢ spread indicates this is an illiquid, potentially stale market where the price may not reflect current sentiment. The astronomical realized volatility of 3594% and high cliff risk (7/10) suggest this contract is highly unstable and prone to sharp repricing, making it a speculative position rather than a reliable indicator of Boone's actual Manager of the Year chances.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa7c2c957c90df6e3f13073fc4e97438c93c2f2ac1a135ee13c58245ee729a43c yes 100