Will Derek Shelton win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?

This market displays extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 29¢ spread despite modest $1,381.46 open interest, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially unreliable pricing. The 908.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine market conviction, while the 2,686% realized volatility indicates this is a highly unstable micro-market. With 247 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this contract appears to be a low-conviction, thinly-traded position with significant execution risk for any meaningful position entry.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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