Will Skip Schumaker win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Will Skip Schumaker win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. Skip Schumaker is priced at 39¢ with an extremely wide 78¢ bid-ask spread and zero 24-hour volume, indicating severe illiquidity despite $1.2M open interest—a red flag suggesting the quoted price may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
Skip Schumaker is priced at 39¢ with an extremely wide 78¢ bid-ask spread and zero 24-hour volume, indicating severe illiquidity despite $1.2M open interest—a red flag suggesting the quoted price may not reflect true market consensus. The 196% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high and likely a mispricing artifact of the wide spread rather than genuine opportunity, compounded by the market's extreme 1197% realized volatility and 7.67 vol ratio. With 247 days to expiry and minimal information arrival (2.0/hour), this market appears to be a low-conviction, thinly-traded position where the price should be treated with significant skepticism.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0xcab443a3e536226cc336cadf8cb798c7df41cca7b676c1e8cb8b5a513ea31143 yes 100