Will Carlos Santana win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?
Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will Carlos Santana win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. The market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.38M open interest, and an unusually wide 78¢ spread suggests significant uncertainty or potential mispricing between bid-ask levels.
Analysis
The market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.38M open interest, and an unusually wide 78¢ spread suggests significant uncertainty or potential mispricing between bid-ask levels. The 39¢ price implies Santana has roughly a 2-in-5 chance at the award, but the 231% implied yield on the yes side combined with 468% realized volatility indicates this is a highly speculative position with substantial pricing uncertainty. With 247 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 0.8 events per hour, the market appears relatively illiquid for a major sports award, warranting caution on position sizing.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Platinum Glove award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0x99beb023a53aa188ccf593b006a1da45c2c28c4aa517840744a245cdf45f784b yes 100