Will Sean Manaea win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?
Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Will Sean Manaea win the 2026 NL Comeback Player of the Year award?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.5M open interest, combined with a massive 48¢ bid-ask spread and a 443.7% implied yield on the Yes side—suggesting the 25¢ price may not reflect true consensus probability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.5M open interest, combined with a massive 48¢ bid-ask spread and a 443.7% implied yield on the Yes side—suggesting the 25¢ price may not reflect true consensus probability. The 7-day price collapse from 42¢ to 25¢ and extraordinary 5103% realized volatility indicate significant recent negative information arrival about Manaea's 2026 prospects, though the neutral regime score and low cliff risk suggest no imminent resolution catalysts before the December 2026 expiry.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x8290e3dda065a94777d2638b08e5f9431377525716d67498b18d12695429a5d3 yes 100