Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing October 31, 2026. The Red Sox contract is pricing in an extremely low 3% win probability with an extraordinary 5,993% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting the massive asymmetry between the 3¢ ask and potential $1 payout—typical of long-shot sports futures with minimal liquidity relative to open interest ($132.6M OI on just $5.7M daily volume).
Analysis
The Red Sox contract is pricing in an extremely low 3% win probability with an extraordinary 5,993% implied yield on the Yes side, reflecting the massive asymmetry between the 3¢ ask and potential $1 payout—typical of long-shot sports futures with minimal liquidity relative to open interest ($132.6M OI on just $5.7M daily volume). The market has declined 25% over seven days (4¢ to 3¢), suggesting either deteriorating team outlook or profit-taking, though the zero spread and moderate Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicate relatively stable pricing with 197 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x3e38887e936b8fedd5373852777e7a3e90805affd8139971ebeb4b4956f000f5 yes 100