Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing October 31, 2026. The Phillies are priced at an extremely depressed 4¢ with an extraordinary 4447% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation or market skepticism about their 2026 championship prospects despite solid recent performance.
Analysis
The Phillies are priced at an extremely depressed 4¢ with an extraordinary 4447% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe undervaluation or market skepticism about their 2026 championship prospects despite solid recent performance. The 197-day timeframe and $115M open interest provide reasonable liquidity, though the 24 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk as we approach the October 2026 resolution date. The 7-point price movement from 3¢ to 4¢ over seven days is modest, but the massive yield asymmetry (4447% vs 7.7%) indicates the market has priced in a very low baseline probability that may not fully account for roster continuity or mid-season performance shifts.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Trade
sf trade 0x9e238daa4cc2b89379314f5c1873e3c0d07d26bf2eb69a3d618a7b5d13b165a0 yes 100