Will the Democratic Party win the MN-01 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 40¢ reflects a competitive but Republican-favored race in Minnesota's 1st district, with the No side commanding a 273.7% implied yield versus 121.7% for Yes—a significant asymmetry suggesting market participants view Republican victory as more likely. The 341% realized volatility and 2.01 vol ratio indicate substantial uncertainty despite the 200-day timeframe, though the modest 3¢ spread and $22M open interest suggest reasonable liquidity for a district-level House race. With an information arrival rate of 1.8 events per hour and the market having moved only 1¢ over seven days, this appears to be a relatively stable positioning ahead of the 2026 midterms, though the elevated volatility warrants caution on directional conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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