Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?

The Democratic contract has declined 8 cents over seven days to 34¢, reflecting Republican structural advantages in Missouri's 5th district, though the 21¢ bid-ask spread and modest $168 daily volume suggest limited liquidity for position-building. The extreme 496% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 651% realized volatility indicates this market is pricing in substantial uncertainty despite the long 199-day timeframe, possibly reflecting early-stage pricing inefficiency or genuine fluidity in candidate recruitment. The 3.07 vol ratio and 0.8 info arrivals per hour suggest information is arriving faster than the market is pricing it, warranting caution on the current 34¢ level as a stable valuation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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