Will the Republican Party win the MO-06 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) for Republican victory in MO-06, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $15,790 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could make this price vulnerable to sudden moves. The asymmetric implied yields—15.9% for Yes versus 2098.6% for No—reflect the lopsided odds, with the No side offering outsized returns if Republicans underperform, though this also signals minimal conviction from contrarian bettors. With 200 days until the November 2026 election and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in structural Republican strength in this district rather than responding to recent campaign developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade