Will Denise Powell be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

This market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1954% and an implied yield on the Yes side reaching 2103%, suggesting either high uncertainty about Powell's nomination chances or potential mispricing given the tight 25-day window to resolution. The price has surged dramatically from 14¢ to 41¢ over seven days with only $113 in 24-hour volume, indicating thin liquidity that may be amplifying price swings and creating execution risk. With the Democratic primary closing on the exact resolution date (5/12/2026), there's cliff risk present, though the neutral regime and 2.4 information arrivals per hour suggest the market is still processing incoming data about the nomination race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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