Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will John Cavanaugh be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Polymarket, closing May 12, 2026. The market has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 27 cents over seven days (from 81¢ to 54¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival about Cavanaugh's candidacy at a rate of 2.6 events per hour.
Analysis
The market has experienced extreme volatility, plummeting 27 cents over seven days (from 81¢ to 54¢), suggesting significant negative information arrival about Cavanaugh's candidacy at a rate of 2.6 events per hour. The extraordinarily high implied yields (1247.6% for Yes, 1719.3% for No) combined with a 685% realized volatility and 2.42 vol ratio indicate severe mispricing or anticipation of a binary outcome event, with the market pricing in substantial uncertainty despite the 54¢ midpoint. With only 25 days until the May 12 primary resolution and a wide 5¢ spread on relatively modest $123k daily volume, liquidity is thin for a market this volatile, creating potential slippage for larger positions.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0xbc24b322009fec1418ae0f31324a51b1fb41c79e8e49686ba2f4eb2658cad666 yes 100