What is the current probability for "Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 12, 2026. 20 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 60345.0% and 57.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Mark Johnston be the Democratic nominee for NE-02?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 12, 2026.

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3¢

Bid/Ask 2/3¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $30·OI $15,707.683·Closes May 12, 2026·20d remaining

0x30c56466ef835fd7434e73a6b430d4ba95e12f516afd8165eb9d0346ace76f5d

7-day price66 snapshots · 2 regime

5¢3¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 19

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NE-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on May 12, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 60345.0%

IY (No) 57.7%

Adj IY 30172%

CRI 32

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	60345.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	57.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	30172%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 10:40:05 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 10:38:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x30c56466ef835fd7434e73a6b430d4ba95e12f516afd8165eb9d0346ace76f5d yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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