What is the current probability for "Necaxa vs Guadalajara Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 24¢ (24% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Necaxa vs Guadalajara Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 8299.6% and 740.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Necaxa vs Guadalajara Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Necaxa vs Guadalajara Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Necaxa vs Guadalajara Winner?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026.

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24¢

Bid/Ask 23/24¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $107.25·OI $441.13·Closes May 7, 2026·15d remaining

KXLIGAMXGAME-26APR22NCXCDG-TIE

7-day price21 snapshots · 3 regime

23¢23¢ current

Apr 2018¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the Necaxa vs Guadalajara professional Liga MX soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8299.6%

IY (No) 740.5%

Adj IY 6880%

CRI 3

RV 256%

VR 0.26

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	8299.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	740.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6880%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	256%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.26	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.04	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 9:46:41 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:38:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLIGAMXGAME-26APR22NCXCDG-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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