Will Heath Howard be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Heath Howard be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. Heath Howard's nomination odds are priced at a minimal 3¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), creating an extremely illiquid market despite $7.9k open interest.
Analysis
Heath Howard's nomination odds are priced at a minimal 3¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), creating an extremely illiquid market despite $7.9k open interest. The 8200% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reflects the severe mispricing typical of thin markets, though the 32 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful uncertainty around nomination dynamics. With 144 days to expiry and the primary occurring exactly at market close (9/8/2026), this appears to be a speculative position with limited price discovery.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf148cc2ebf6cc9a264d61d2df574c050121fb9162b3458d261cc0f230a177677 yes 100