Will the Republican Party win the NH-02 House seat?

The Republican probability in NH-02 has declined sharply from 17¢ to 13¢ over seven days, suggesting recent polling or political developments have shifted sentiment toward the Democratic incumbent. The extreme implied yield of 1115% on the Yes side reflects the deeply asymmetric risk profile at 14¢, though the modest $24 daily volume and 5¢ spread indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as we approach the November 2026 election. The elevated realized volatility (1691%) and high cliff risk index (6) suggest this market is pricing in significant uncertainty, possibly due to limited polling data this far from the election or recent campaign developments in this traditionally Democratic seat.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NH-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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