Will the Democratic Party win the NY-07 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $26,681 in open interest, suggesting the 94¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could face sharp repricing if volume emerges. The massive 2,849.9% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of minimal liquidity on that outcome—a single small bet against Democrats could dramatically move the price. With 201 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in a heavily favored Democratic hold in NY-07, but the extreme spread and asymmetric yields warrant caution about treating this as reliable pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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