Will the Democratic Party win the NY-10 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in NY-10, with a 94¢ price implying 94% Democratic probability, yet the "No" side offers an extraordinary 2,849.9% implied yield compared to just 11.6% for "Yes"—a massive asymmetry suggesting severe illiquidity on the Republican side with only $34.7K open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 16 and the stark yield disparity indicate this market may be mispriced or simply lacks sufficient Republican interest to challenge the Democratic consensus, making any Republican position extremely speculative despite the theoretical payout.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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