Dalourny Nemorin to win NY-15 Democratic Primary
Dalourny Nemorin is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner.
Price history
4¢ current
−46¢Contract brief
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Outcome
Dalourny Nemorin
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Ritchie Torres 92¢
Range
0¢-92¢
Family volume
$34K
Identifier
0xe03ff7a9...c7e0
May 28, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
5¢
24h volume
$720
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
Family volume
$34K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
Identifier
0xe03ff7a9…c7e0
Event family
NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$34K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Ritchie Torres 92¢
Current share
45%
Ritchie Torres
polymarket · 0xe8ddce0b363dec3cd83336187125c4b23ba35ddd9ab082356b38f1cb122f3ae9
Dalourny Nemorin
polymarket · 0xe03ff7a92557db1422537bd232deff224eb7349e0d9978957e4d471fee5ec7e0
Michael Blake
polymarket · 0x1522a8bc6e0edaec715b93b1bb35558ff56906ede6bcbe55282267a8a167fa64
Amanda Septimo
polymarket · 0xe34353946e1b980f8ff778a5deab963630446b5286b870e230ec59b017dfdf12
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.