Will Ritchie Torres be the Democratic nominee for NY-15?

The market is pricing Torres as a heavy favorite at 88¢ with minimal trading activity ($6.48 in 24h volume), suggesting low conviction despite the high probability. The extreme 4140.9% implied yield on "No" reflects the severe illiquidity and tail-risk pricing typical of low-volume prediction markets, making this price potentially unreliable for actual exposure. With 65 days to expiry and a tight 3¢ spread, the market has stabilized recently (86¢ to 88¢ over 7 days), but the cliff risk index of 7 indicates meaningful event risk that could trigger sharp repricing closer to the June 23 primary.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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