NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader sits at 90% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Ritchie Torres
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Michael Blake
Spread
84pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 23, 2026
45 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
NY-15 Democratic Primary Winner
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that the current leader will win New York's 15th District Democratic primary. At 87%, the market is pricing in a substantial but not overwhelming advantage for the frontrunner. The probability reflects factors including candidate name recognition, recent polling trends, fundraising disparities, and organizational strength within the district. The primary election itself will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market. Price movements between now and election day would likely reflect updated polling data, unexpected candidate withdrawals, major endorsements, or shifts in voter turnout expectations. The 13-point gap to the runner-up suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether structural advantages will translate to primary victory, given potential late-breaking developments or polling error in local contests.
- ›Current polling position and trend trajectory among likely primary voters in NY-15
- ›Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand for the leading candidates through most recent FEC reporting
- ›Geographic distribution and demographic composition of the district versus candidate base of support
- ›Endorsements from local elected officials, community organizations, and established party figures
- ›Registered Democrat turnout patterns and voter mobilization capacity of competing campaigns in the district
What moved the line
- May 2Michael Blake↓10pp22→12¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Ritchie Torres↑4pp87→91¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will a reconciliation bill passed the Senate before May 20, 2026last 94% · 1d
- Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jun 1, 2026last 16% · 1d
- Will the Democratic National Committee release a comprehensive post-election report of the 2024 election before Aug 1, 2026last 67% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during California Governor Debatenolast 55% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (90% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.