Will the Democratic Party win the NY-15 House seat?

This market reflects extreme confidence in Democratic retention of NY-15, with a 94¢ price implying 94% win probability, though the stark asymmetry in implied yields (11.6% for Yes vs. 2849.9% for No) signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the No side. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $29,936 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a thin, inactive market where the No position carries outsized theoretical returns due to minimal trading activity rather than genuine fundamental uncertainty. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a legacy position in a heavily Democratic district where contrarian bets lack conviction and liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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