Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 96% probability that Will Eric Conroy be the Republican nominee for OH-01?. This contract trades at 96¢ on Polymarket, closing May 5, 2026. Eric Conroy commands a dominant 90¢ position with just 19 days until the May 5 primary, reflecting a sharp 25-point rally from 65¢ over the past week.
Analysis
Eric Conroy commands a dominant 90¢ position with just 19 days until the May 5 primary, reflecting a sharp 25-point rally from 65¢ over the past week. The extreme 17,495.7% implied yield on "No" positions signals severe mispricing on the downside, suggesting the market has priced in near-certainty despite thin $6.01 daily volume and modest $2.93M open interest—a potential liquidity trap for contrarian bettors. With a 915% realized volatility and 9/10 cliff risk score, this market exhibits classic characteristics of low-liquidity prediction markets where small information arrivals (3.0/hour) can trigger outsized moves ahead of the imminent primary resolution.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xbd5d1e406ef6afdf1bbf2fe3ccb2b936f3bac9a163a291b58c01cd03d830288d yes 100