Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Steven Erbeck be the Republican nominee for OH-01?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 5, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with Erbeck's probability collapsing 78% over seven days (from 32¢ to 7¢), suggesting a major adverse development in his candidacy just 19 days before the May 5 primary.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with Erbeck's probability collapsing 78% over seven days (from 32¢ to 7¢), suggesting a major adverse development in his candidacy just 19 days before the May 5 primary. The implied yield of 25,827% on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing or near-certain elimination of his nomination chances, while the 3,767% realized volatility and 13 cliff risk index indicate this contract has experienced violent repricing. Despite $17.3M open interest, the $42 daily volume and tight 7¢ spread suggest liquidity has dried up as the market has largely priced Erbeck out, leaving this primarily a position-holding market rather than an active trading venue.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6ce71055c410cb49c9aef504b0081682dee0fd25f71a29004807e19e75544fc0 yes 100