Will the Republican Party win the OH-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with the Yes position trading at just 7¢, implying only a 7% probability of Republican victory in OH-03, yet offering a staggering 2416.7% implied yield versus just 13.7% for the No side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $33,035 in open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a stale, illiquid market where the pricing may not reflect current political fundamentals—particularly concerning given that OH-03 has historically been competitive and the 201-day timeframe to the November 2026 election allows substantial room for conditions to shift. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 13 warrants caution, as the extreme yield disparity and lack of recent trading activity indicate potential mispricing or difficulty in liquidating positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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