OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?

The 56¢ price reflects a modest 56% probability for OpenAI exceeding $1.2T at IPO, yet the "No" side offers substantially higher implied yield at 71.5% versus 47.9% for "Yes," suggesting asymmetric risk compensation for the bearish position. With extreme realized volatility at 492% and a Vol Ratio of 7.61, this market exhibits significant pricing uncertainty despite 624 days to expiry, while the thin 11¢ spread and modest $335.7K daily volume indicate relatively low liquidity for such a high-stakes outcome. The neutral regime and minimal 7-day price movement (57¢ to 56¢) suggest the market is currently in equilibrium, though the 1.9 info arrivals per hour signal active sentiment shifts around OpenAI developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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