OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $800B?

The market is pricing a 74% probability that OpenAI's IPO closing valuation will exceed $800B, but the extreme 166.6% implied yield on "No" suggests significant tail-risk hedging or potential mispricing of the downside scenario. With only $7.9M open interest against $117.6K daily volume, liquidity is severely constrained, making the 74¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate, especially given the 242% realized volatility and 5.61 vol ratio indicating substantial uncertainty around IPO timing and valuation outcomes over the 624-day window.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

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