Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?

The market has experienced explosive momentum, surging 123% over seven days to 67¢, suggesting either new information favoring Fujimori or significant trader conviction despite Peru's volatile political environment. The extreme yield asymmetry—352.7% for Yes versus 1453.8% for No—indicates the No side is dramatically underpriced relative to tail risk, though the neutral regime score (0.409) and high realized volatility (188%) caution against treating this as settled. With only 51 days to resolution and $240k in daily volume, the market remains liquid enough to absorb new developments, but the sharp price climb warrants scrutiny for whether it reflects genuine polling shifts or speculative positioning ahead of the April election.

Resolution rules

General elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next Peruvian Presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

Indicators

Regime

Trade