Will London have less than 20mm of precipitation in April?

The market has experienced dramatic volatility, surging 50 cents over seven days to 71¢, suggesting recent weather pattern shifts or model updates favoring drier conditions in London this April. With only 14 days until expiry and an extreme 386% realized volatility, the 11¢ spread reflects genuine uncertainty despite the high price, while the asymmetric implied yields (1367% vs. 5151%) indicate the "No" side offers substantially better risk-adjusted returns. The modest $223.7k daily volume relative to $2M open interest and a Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggest liquidity could tighten as resolution approaches, making this a high-conviction but illiquid bet on below-average April rainfall.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in April, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for April 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of April 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by June 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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