Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2026 NFC West?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will Arizona Cardinals win the 2026 NFC West?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing January 4, 2027. The Cardinals are priced at an extremely depressed 5¢ despite holding $244k in open interest, generating a theoretical 3334% annualized yield on YES positions—a massive mispricing signal typical of low-liquidity novelty markets.
Analysis
The Cardinals are priced at an extremely depressed 5¢ despite holding $244k in open interest, generating a theoretical 3334% annualized yield on YES positions—a massive mispricing signal typical of low-liquidity novelty markets. The 8¢ bid-ask spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity, while the 2129% realized volatility and 8.67 vol ratio indicate extreme price instability that makes the implied yield largely theoretical rather than achievable. With 263 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position-building market where the extreme yield reflects execution risk rather than genuine edge.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the NFC West division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xdf1627c20d47787a22d1f848e1121454645794f920ad1ac4190e2586d92442a5 yes 100