San Jose Earthquakes vs. Austin FC: O/U 1.5

The Over 1.5 goals contract has surged 37% over seven days to 74¢, pricing in a 74% probability of 2+ combined goals, yet zero 24-hour volume and a wide 19¢ spread suggest thin liquidity despite $97k open interest. The extreme yield asymmetry (1,893% Yes vs. 15,331% No) and elevated realized volatility of 1,513% indicate significant mispricing or model uncertainty, though the neutral regime and modest info arrival rate (1.5/h) suggest the market lacks fresh conviction ahead of the April 22 kickoff. With only 7 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a stale or illiquid position where the high Yes price may not reflect true match probabilities.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming MLS game between San Jose Earthquakes and Austin FC, scheduled for April 22 at 10:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if San Jose Earthquakes and Austin FC combine to score 2 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 2, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on mlssoccer.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

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