Will the Republican Party win the SC-07 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 90% to retain SC-07, but the extreme 1,637% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the underdog position—the $0 24h volume and $21k open interest confirm this is a thin market. The 9/10 cliff risk index and 201-day timeframe suggest significant uncertainty could emerge as the 2026 election approaches, making the current 90¢ price potentially vulnerable to repricing if Democratic recruitment or polling shifts materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade