Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate after the May meeting?

This market is pricing in an extremely high probability (92%) that the SARB will hold rates steady at its May meeting, with the price rising sharply from 85¢ over seven days, yet the extraordinarily thin liquidity ($249 open interest, $5 daily volume) and massive 3¢ spread raise serious questions about price reliability. The asymmetric implied yields (76.2% for Yes versus 10075% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 787% suggest this market may be mispriced or subject to low-information-quality trading, particularly given the neutral regime score and modest 1.2 info arrivals per hour. With 42 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 12, traders should be cautious about taking this 92¢ price at face value without confirming positioning through more liquid venues or SARB forward guidance.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the repo rate resulting from the South African Reserve Bank’s May Monetary Policy Committee meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the South African Reserve Bank after its May 28, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank meeting schedule: https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar This market may resolve as soon as the South African Reserve Bank's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the repo rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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