Will the Democratic Party win the TN-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 7¢ price dramatically undervalues Democratic chances in TN-04, though the zero 24-hour volume and $41,969.89 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that may explain the disconnect. The 1¢ spread is tight relative to the price, but with over 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime, there's substantial time for repricing if Democratic recruitment or polling shifts. The 13 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution, as this could reflect genuine Republican dominance in the district rather than pure mispricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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