What is the current probability for "Top Coding AI this month?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 79¢ (79% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on April 30, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Top Coding AI this month?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1661.5% and 9959.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Top Coding AI this month?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Top Coding AI this month?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Top Coding AI this month?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Kalshi, closing April 30, 2026.

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79¢

Bid/Ask 71/79¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $404.05·OI $1,882.79·Closes Apr 30, 2026·9d remaining

KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26APR30-CLAU

7-day price166 snapshots · 17 regime

97¢71¢ current

Apr 850¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Apr 30, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1661.5%

IY (No) 9959.0%

Adj IY 9258%

CRI 2

RV 1271%

VR 2.68

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1661.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	9959.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	9258%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1271%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.68	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 2:45:16 PM

Observability mediumEvent type scientific

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 2:38:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXTECHRANKLISTAICODE-26APR30-CLAU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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