Toyama Grouses vs San-En Neophoenix Winner?

Prediction markets currently give a 92% probability that Toyama Grouses vs San-En Neophoenix Winner?. This contract trades at 92¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 11¢ spread and extraordinary implied yields exceeding 5,600% on the No side, suggesting the pricing mechanism has broken down entirely.

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92¢
Bid/Ask 87/91¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $192.6·OI $447.81·Closes May 6, 2026·14d remaining
KXJBLEAGUEGAME-26APR220605TOYNEO-NEO
7-day price56 snapshots · 2 regime
88¢87¢ current
Apr 196¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 11¢ spread and extraordinary implied yields exceeding 5,600% on the No side, suggesting the pricing mechanism has broken down entirely. The 7-day price movement from 6¢ to 72¢ combined with 27,869% realized volatility indicates severe mispricing or data anomalies rather than genuine market discovery. With only 16 days to expiration and a game originally scheduled for April 22, 2026 (already passed), this contract appears to have fundamental resolution issues that make the current pricing meaningless.

Resolution rules

If San-En Neophoenix wins the Toyama Grouses vs San-En Neophoenix professional Japan B League basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 at 6:05 AM EDT, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 386.8%
IY (No) 17321.6%
Adj IY 17322%
CRI 7
RV 11159%
VR 15.33
▶ Full indicator table (7)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)386.8%
IY (No)17321.6%
Adj IY17322%
CRI7
RV11159%
VR15.33
IAR0.7/h

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 7:51:21 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 7:38:24 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXJBLEAGUEGAME-26APR220605TOYNEO-NEO yes 100

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