Will the Republican Party win the TX-13 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided outcome with Republicans at 92¢, reflecting TX-13's strong Republican lean, though the 1¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume suggest minimal liquidity for this contract. The No side's implied yield of 2091.8% signals severe mispricing or illiquidity rather than genuine Democratic opportunity, as the risk-adjusted yield of 1046% indicates the market may be overweighting tail scenarios. With 201 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, this contract carries moderate event risk but remains heavily skewed toward the consensus Republican outcome.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade