Will the Democratic Party win the TX-27 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1333.9% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting Democrats are dramatically underpriced at 12¢ despite TX-27 being a historically competitive district that flipped Democratic in 2018 and 2020. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $10.1M open interest and a wide 3¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. With 201 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market appears to be a liquidity trap where the extreme yield reflects pricing dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-27 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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