Will Paddy Pimblett fight Charles Oliveira next?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1031% risk-adjusted yield on the "Yes" side against just 12.7% on "No," yet trades at only 11¢ with minimal liquidity ($4.02 in 24h volume and a wide 15¢ spread), suggesting the low price may reflect genuine skepticism rather than market efficiency. The realized volatility of 2519% and high cliff risk index (9) indicate this contract has experienced dramatic swings, possibly driven by sporadic UFC announcement news rather than sustained trading interest. With 319 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 4.6 events per hour, the market appears to be pricing in a low but non-negligible probability of this specific matchup, though the illiquidity and extreme yield skew warrant caution about relying on the 11¢ price as a true probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Charles Oliveira is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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