Will Benoît Saint Denis fight Max Holloway next?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite nearly 11 months to expiration, with only $50 in 24-hour volume against $62k open interest and a massive 62¢ spread indicating significant pricing uncertainty. The 158% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 4118% realized volatility and a 26.92 vol ratio suggests this is a highly speculative position with minimal market depth—the recent 8¢ price movement (31¢ to 39¢) likely reflects individual trades rather than fundamental information shifts. With a 6.0/hour information arrival rate and neutral regime, this appears to be a thin, information-starved market where the 39¢ price should be treated with caution given the wide bid-ask spread and potential for significant repricing once UFC fight announcements materialize.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Max Holloway is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Max Holloway is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Max Holloway is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

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