Will the Democratic Party win the VA-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 85¢ reflects strong confidence in retaining VA-02, though the extreme 1,029% implied yield on "No" signals severe illiquidity on the Republican side with only $1.6M open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1,379% realized volatility and 19.39 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced wild price swings despite the high Democratic probability, indicating thin order books and potential for sharp moves as we approach the November 2026 election over 200 days away.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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