Will the Democratic Party win the WA-01 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in Washington's 1st District, with a 92¢ price implying 92% Democratic probability, yet the No side offers a striking 2091.8% implied yield compared to just 15.8% for Yes—a massive asymmetry driven by the tiny $0.08 ask price. The $26.9M open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a heavily one-sided position with minimal recent trading activity, leaving significant liquidity risk if the market moves toward a competitive scenario. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in a near-certain Democratic hold, though the extreme yield skew on the No side warrants caution about potential mispricing or illiquidity concerns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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