Will the Republican Party win the WA-03 House seat?

The Republican contract at 28¢ reflects a heavily Democratic-favored race in WA-03, with the No side offering only a 68.3% implied yield compared to an exceptional 499.2% yield for Republican backers—a stark asymmetry suggesting significant conviction in Democratic retention. With just $13.38 in 24-hour volume against $8,159 open interest and a 9¢ spread, liquidity is thin relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger traders. The market remains 198 days from resolution with a neutral regime score, though the modest 1¢ price appreciation over seven days indicates relatively stable positioning despite the lopsided odds.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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