What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
Portland is priced at 22¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 22¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 5 inside What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026.
Price history
22¢ current
+11¢Contract brief
If the National Guard is deployed to Portland after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Portland
Rank
#3 of 5
Leader
Detroit 28¢
Range
19¢-28¢
Family volume
$66
Identifier
KXNGUARDCITY-26-POR
Jun 19, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 16m ago
Implied probability
Bid
22¢
Ask
23¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#3 of 5
5 outcomes · What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$66
Orderbook snapshot
22 / 23¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the National Guard is deployed to Portland after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXNGUARDCITY-26-POR
Event family
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$66
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Detroit 28¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.