What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry (498% Yes vs. 40% No) despite minimal price movement over seven days, suggesting the 24¢ price may reflect structural illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—the $10 daily volume against $2.5K open interest and 5¢ spread indicates thin trading. The 432% realized volatility and 4.0 cliff risk index signal this is a speculative, low-liquidity contract where large positions could move pricing significantly, making the headline 498% yield potentially misleading for practical traders.

Resolution rules

If the National Guard is deployed to Portland after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

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