What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
Leader sits at 28% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Detroit
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
22¢
Portland
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$43
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
198 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Houston
KXNGUARDCITY-26-HOU
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Portland
KXNGUARDCITY-26-POR
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: San Francisco
KXNGUARDCITY-26-SF
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Detroit
KXNGUARDCITY-26-DET
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Chicago
KXNGUARDCITY-26-CHI
Analysis
This contract estimates a 30% probability that Trump will deploy the National Guard to at least one U.S. city during 2026. The market is pricing this as an uncommon but meaningful outcome. The probability reflects uncertainty around whether Trump administration policies will prioritize National Guard deployments for domestic purposes, potentially in response to public safety concerns or civil unrest. Key drivers include the administration's approach to domestic security priorities and whether conditions emerge that officials believe warrant deployment. Resolution depends on whether any official National Guard activation for domestic purposes occurs in any U.S. city by December 31, 2026. The tight clustering of prices near 30% suggests limited consensus on likelihood.
- ›Trump administration's stated domestic security priorities and operational doctrine for National Guard deployment compared to precedent
- ›Occurrence and severity of any public safety incidents, civil unrest, or emergencies in U.S. cities that could trigger deployment consideration
- ›Legal and political constraints, including Posse Comitatus Act limitations and congressional dynamics that would affect deployment decisions
- ›Historical frequency of domestic National Guard deployments during comparable periods to establish baseline expectations
- ›Contracts currently tied between multiple outcomes at 30%, indicating market uncertainty rather than strong conviction in any single deployment outcome
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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