What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
99 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026?: Chicago
KXNGUARDCITY-26-CHI
Analysis
This market estimates a 19% probability that President Trump will deploy the National Guard to at least one major U.S. city during 2026. The leading scenario is Chicago at 19%, followed by Houston at 16% and Detroit at 14%. This probability reflects expectations about civil unrest, public safety concerns, or federal intervention that could prompt such a deployment. The level is driven primarily by near-term economic conditions, crime trends in major cities, and the political context surrounding executive use of federal forces. Key catalysts include major crime spikes or civil disturbances in tracked cities, which would directly influence whether conditions meet thresholds for National Guard deployment. As 2026 unfolds, actual public safety developments and policy decisions will determine if this scenario materializes. Currently, low trading volume ($0 in recent activity) suggests limited market conviction across all outcomes.
- ›Crime rates and public safety data in Chicago, Houston, Detroit, Portland, and San Francisco—significant increases could raise deployment probability
- ›Major civil disturbances, riots, or large-scale unrest in any tracked city would directly trigger reassessment of deployment likelihood
- ›Federal policy statements and executive guidance on National Guard deployment criteria and trigger thresholds throughout 2026
- ›Election-related tensions or social unrest in late 2026 as midterm cycle dynamics intensify
- ›Comparative pricing across the five cities reveals Chicago and Houston as market leaders despite near-zero volume, indicating structural expectations rather than consensus certainty
What moved the line
- Sep 19Chicago↓18pp19→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Chicago↓9pp19→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Chicago↑9pp10→19¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Chicago↑4pp1→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (4% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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