What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
San Francisco is priced at 14¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 19¢ ask, 5¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 5 inside What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026.
Price history
14¢ current
+12¢Contract brief
If the National Guard is deployed to San Francisco after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
San Francisco
Rank
#2 of 5
Leader
Chicago 19¢
Range
3¢-19¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXNGUARDCITY-26-SF
Sep 16, 2026, 4:38 PM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
19¢
Spread
5¢
Reported volume
$6K
Family rank
#2 of 5
5 outcomes · What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 19¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the National Guard is deployed to San Francisco after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXNGUARDCITY-26-SF
Event family
What cities will Trump send the National Guard to in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Chicago 19¢
Current share
—
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Trump Foreign Policy 2026: Latin America, Venezuela, and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
How Trump’s 2026 foreign policy toward Latin America and Venezuela is reshaping sanctions, migration, trade, and military risk—and what prediction markets are pricing in.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
Venezuela Opposition, Maria Corina Machado, and 2026 Prediction Markets: What Traders Are Really Pricing In
Deep‑dive for political risk analysts and traders on Venezuela’s opposition, María Corina Machado’s strategy, sanctions and diaspora leverage, and what 2026 prediction markets are really pricing in about regime change odds.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 14% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.