What is the current probability for "Will BNB reach $1200 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will BNB reach $1200 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 917.3% and 24.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will BNB reach $1200 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will BNB reach $1200 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will BNB reach $1200 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 13/14¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $0·OI $325.748·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0xfa28fad5d1e895a9c969e85edc3b0a8ad1ac5afc00cc8bd6f80032ae0c8bc4f1

7-day price265 snapshots · 6 regime

50¢14¢ current

Apr 810¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for BNB (BNB/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 16:10 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT “High” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BNB/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 917.3%

IY (No) 24.3%

Adj IY 852%

CRI 6

RV 868%

VR 2.56

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	917.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	24.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	852%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	868%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.56	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.5/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.07	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

1¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:45:16 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:38:57 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xfa28fad5d1e895a9c969e85edc3b0a8ad1ac5afc00cc8bd6f80032ae0c8bc4f1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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