What is the current probability for "Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 33¢ (33% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 317.3% and 70.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 33% probability that Will BNB dip to $300 by December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 33¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The 26% probability reflects skepticism that BNB will touch $300 over the next 14+ months, with BNB currently trading well above that level—the 401% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests substantial upside if a dip occurs, but the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $499 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that could make entry/exit difficult.

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33¢

Bid/Ask 18/48¢·Spread 30¢·Vol $28·OI $275.112·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0xdb891dcb952d1c56e0c1a2520f4d6f3bca86404dd8c030eec7b255dd0031d56d

7-day price218 snapshots · 5 regime

50¢32¢ current

Apr 823¢May 1

Analysis

14d ago

The 26% probability reflects skepticism that BNB will touch $300 over the next 14+ months, with BNB currently trading well above that level—the 401% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggests substantial upside if a dip occurs, but the $0 24-hour volume and minimal $499 open interest indicate severe illiquidity that could make entry/exit difficult. The 8¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 26¢ price, and the recent 21% price decline from 33¢ to 26¢ over seven days suggests weakening conviction in a dip scenario, though the neutral regime score (0.5) provides no directional signal for BNB's medium-term trajectory.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for BNB (BNB/USDT) between November 24, 2025, 15:45 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “Low” price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BNB/USDT “Low” prices available at: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BNB_USDT with the chart settings on “1m” (one-minute candles) selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BNB/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 317.3%

IY (No) 70.3%

Adj IY 20%

CRI 2

RV 558%

VR 3.06

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	317.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	70.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	20%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	558%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.06	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.94	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

30¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:45:04 PM

Observability mediumEvent type unknown

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:38:57 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xdb891dcb952d1c56e0c1a2520f4d6f3bca86404dd8c030eec7b255dd0031d56d yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →