Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June?

The 13¢ price implies only a 13% probability that gold settles within the $3,800-$4,200 range by June 2026, yet the asymmetric implied yields (3,300% for Yes vs. 74% for No) suggest significant mispricing or tail-risk hedging demand. With 74 days to expiry, $220k in 24h volume against $9M open interest, and a realized volatility of 763%, this market shows extreme conviction that gold will break outside this band—likely substantially higher given gold's recent strength and the wide $400 range. The 7-day price decline from 14¢ to 13¢ combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicates growing confidence in an out-of-range resolution, making this a contrarian bet for those bullish on mean reversion or skeptical of further gold appreciation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June. For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

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