Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026?

This market is pricing a 65% probability that Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest reaches $4B in 2026, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (79.3% for Yes vs. 250.5% for No) suggest significant mispricing or risk aversion among traders. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $2.47M open interest and a wide 14¢ spread, liquidity is dangerously thin, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable for actual position entry. The recent 6¢ price decline over seven days combined with 185% realized volatility and a 2.04 vol ratio indicates this market is experiencing elevated uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest 0.5/h information arrival rate suggest no imminent catalyst is driving directional conviction.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest is equal to or greater than the amount specified in the title at any point in 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is Artemis Analytics, using the Hyperliquid page available at: https://app.artemisanalytics.com/asset/Hyperliquid?tab=deep_dives The value used will be the “Total” open interest shown when hovering over a daily bar in the “HIP-3 DEXs by Open Interest” chart. A daily value is considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable public data sources.

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